Figmentations

Is Conventional Wisdom good or bad?  I would say: “it depends on the circumstances.”  I tend not to describe things as being only “black or white” anyway.  I often see things in shades of gray.  There seems to always be extremes and exceptions, or a new combination of elements finally coming together in just the “right” or “wrong” way, that theories just can’t blindly be applied in the same way every time, e.g., what’s good for one person, isn’t always good for all people.

On the other hand, there are those “hard and fast” rules and laws that can seem to be more absolute.  For example, if we all follow the “rules of the road” when driving, order is maintained.  The system works quite well.  But there, too, is were we begin to see those gray areas of “lawful” versus “ethical”, e.g., is it really okay to speed just a little, especially if everyone else does it, too? 

So, what is “Conventional Wisdom” anyway?  My understanding is that it is like a barometer that indicates the prevailing belief system that many people are likely to hold either consciously or subconsciously about a way of being or doing something.  For example, some would say: “yes, it’s okay to speed as long as you’re going with the flow of traffic (and you don’t get caught).”

According to Wikipedia.com, words used to define “conventional wisdom” include: “…not necessarily true…”, and “…convenient, appealing, and deeply assumed by the public.”  That’s the tricky part.  When something is not necessarily true, yet it’s a widely held belief, that is when people begin to follow blindly or self-righteously rationalize. 

I believe that theories often start off with good intentions, yet over time they begin to mutate or get hijacked by people who don’t have the same intentions or the same goals.  This mutated logic is then adopted by a mob mentality of people that want to get in on the action, too. 

As this mutation is occurring is when the different intentions overlap or blend together and the “right” versus “wrong” is no longer clear.  One example of this is the difference in the “rules of the game” that hedge fund managers or venture capitalists play under to make money versus what the rules that the general public are expected to ”play under” to earn a living.  The “conventional wisdom” is likely quite different for each group.  One group can’t simply adopt the other’s philosophy without there being a noticeable impact or fallout.

There are a number of theories out there that try to explain how society gets itself into trouble with “conventional wisdom”.  There is: the “Boiling Frog” theory; the “Black Swan” theory; what George Soros  describes as ”misconceptions of trends”; or as Robert Cialdini’s books on persuasion point out the concepts of “social proof”, “herding”, and the “bandwagon effect”. 

There is a degree of personal responsibility that we must assume. Blind-faith can be dangerous and we can’t put the blame on everyone else without looking at our own individual roles in this, too.  It’s important that we know what advice we are listening to.  We know to be cautious about and not to fall victim to get-rich schemes.  Yet, we can’t assume that we’re immune to the temptation of them either.  In the book “Gotcha Capitalism“, by Bob Sullivan, these schemes are so fast-changing that the watchdog groups aren’t even able to keep up with them. 

Let’s hope that we can minimize our likelihood of getting blindsided by reality in the future as we learn from our life experiences. Let’s be aware that we can’t blindly assume that conventional wisdom is always right or always wrong either.  As Fareed Zakaria of CNN points out “our house of cards is collapsing, but this is our opportunity to build a house of bricks.”